Recently, Liu Zhaohui, the executive director of Ganzhao Optoelectronics, shared some development trends on the LED industry at the 2017 Interim Strategy Meeting held by Huatai Securities.
There are still dozens of chip companies, and the production capacity of large factories will be released.
This year, several major manufacturers are expanding production. In the LED industry in China, in the past few years, no matter in the fields of production equipment, chip manufacturing, and packaging, they have made great progress, and they have a higher status and competition with international manufacturers. The ability has been greatly improved.
At present, domestic chip factories are expanding production. In 2017, Sanan's production capacity will reach 2.5 million pieces from 1.8 million pieces, and Huacan's production capacity will reach 1.5 million pieces.
With K465I equipment as the mainstay, manufacturers with a capacity of 200,000 or less may be eliminated in the next two years, and some products will be released. We count the number of chip companies in the market. It is estimated that there are still more than a dozen or so. In addition to the big manufacturers, these manufacturers have relatively small, weaker manufacturers. These manufacturers have a capacity of 200,000 or less, mainly based on old equipment.
Why are these manufacturers still alive? Because the industry is in short supply, it can get orders and get cash flow. But if a few big manufacturers just mentioned can release the production capacity, these small manufacturers will never get the order again. No order means no cash flow, which means that the break-even can not be guaranteed. The consequences of meeting it can only be shut down.
In the LED industry's main production equipment, high-end equipment is still relatively lacking, and currently it is unable to keep up with the pace of foreign countries. However, according to recent observations, the domestically verified, Sanan has been verified, if the verification passes, it will enter the domestic market.
After two years, the industry pattern may be very stable, and there will be no chance for backward manufacturers.
The production capacity is further concentrated to the dominant manufacturers.
As of the end of 2017, the capacity of the first three mainland manufacturers will be close to 60% of the total capacity. Therefore, expanding production or not expanding production has become a problem of survival. Therefore, expanding and not expanding production has become a problem we must consider. Without the scale, there will be no industrial status, and only the fate of being expanded. Therefore, the expansion of production is undoubtedly an answer, that is, if you have an industrial dream.
So if we look at it, we made a guess. The last chance of the oligarch warfare may be that in the past two years, the industry pattern may be very stable in the next two years, and there will be no chance for backward manufacturers.
Through the miserable years of 2013 to 2015, manufacturers are calling for an orderly pattern.
We are cautiously optimistic about the market in 2018 for several reasons: First, the expansion is concentrated in large factories, and the expansion is relatively rational. why?
Because the first one, the government now has no subsidies, the subsidies are few, and the expansion of the production is relatively small, and everyone does not have this strength.
The second main reason is that the performance improvement of the equipment reaches a bottleneck in a short period of time. For example, the machine is an old machine. The performance per month is 100, and the new performance is 200. But now, there are no old devices. . All the big factories have experienced the miserable years from 2013 to 2015, and all manufacturers are calling for an orderly pattern, and the performance is very rational.
In addition to expanding production, companies must improve the layout of the industrial chain.
This round of chip expansion may have about 30% capacity release. We have counted the top 15 packaging plants of downstream packaging companies. They also have corresponding expansion plans. The downstream expansion cycle is shorter and more flexible. The expansion plan is also around 30%. For us, the supply and demand for capacity are relatively balanced.
There is a saying in this industry that the boss eats meat, the second child drinks soup, and the third child is injured. At the end of 2017, Sanan's production capacity in the whole continent will reach or exceed 30%. As capacity continues to expand, the proportion may continue to increase.
In the main application fields of LED, such as general lighting, backlight, display screen, etc., the threshold of technology that this chip does not have for various manufacturers is not to say that Sanan can be used, Huacan can not use it, not this kind of The difference is that their products are substitutable and ultimately the difference in cost. When supply and demand are balanced, each packaging plant will balance the upstream supply pattern to ensure the stability and security of its supply chain.
In addition to expanding production, we have actually done one thing, that is, to improve the layout of the industrial chain. The first one, upstream, like Sanan, from Changjing, Pingping to PSS, a fully enclosed supply chain system. This is the model of Sanan. Of course, there is another model. The leading chip companies have the desire to cooperate in the upstream and downstream, so they will form a model of mutual participation.
Domestic chip companies will undertake capacity transfer of major international companies
Now domestic manufacturers are borrowing international big manufacturers, domestic chip leaders to attack the high-end positions in international chips. By cooperating with major international manufacturers, is this cooperation only done by Sanan? What choices do some big manufacturers face in this cooperation? Are there domestic chip companies and foreign giants working together? So in the face of such cooperation, in fact Sanan Optoelectronics has made an example and also provided some cooperation opportunities for the second and third comparative advantage manufacturers in China.
With the advantage of capacity and cost, domestic chip companies will undertake the capacity transfer of major international companies. In this round of expansion, in the field of general lighting, display, backlight and other applications, the international LED manufacturers have basically no expansion, and the future production capacity will be transferred to mainland China.
In the future, it is not excluded that some or even most of the chips of international companies will be contracted by domestic enterprises.
There is a saying that in 2013, none of the top ten packaging factories in the world were mainland enterprises, but by 2017, four of the top ten packaging factories in the world are mainland Chinese enterprises. For this industrial chain development, Chinese packaging companies have the right to speak in the future. More and more, Chinese packaging companies are definitely the first to purchase products from Chinese chip companies, which has led to a shift to mainland China.
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