Morgan Stanley Securities pointed out that for most LED suppliers, the first quarter of 2009 may be the most severe season. Due to the very low visibility of orders and the high degree of uncertainty in order taking, coupled with the pressure of product price declines and inventory price declines, LED manufacturers are expected to experience a recession in the first quarter, and gross margins are also 3%-5%. Repair space. With the destocking of the inventory, it is expected that in the second half of the year, the demand for Christmas lighting and consumer electronics will be warmed up. The fastest revenue of the manufacturers is expected to recover in the second quarter. However, due to the signs of improvement in the first quarter, the rating of the Underweight is still given.
In December 2008, LED manufacturers in Taiwan fell by an average of more than 20% from the previous month, and a 40% decline from the same period in 2007. The monthly reduction of the original legal person estimate may fall between 10% and 20%. Morgan Stanley Securities believes that the main reason is caused by factors such as frozen orders and inventory at the end of the year. Among them, Jingdian has low demand in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in mainland China, and its monthly revenue has dropped to NT$400 million. Downstream LED packaging has also experienced a slump in demand due to sluggish demand. The average monthly revenue reduction in December was 24% and the annual reduction rate was 38. %.
Morgan Stanley Securities pointed out that in addition to a few manufacturers that do not focus on consumer electronics, the capacity utilization rate of most LED manufacturers in December has dropped to 40%. Due to the lack of inventory and lack of order kinetic energy, the LED industry believes that the current order visibility is very low. It is expected that the order volume in the first quarter of 2009 may decline by 40%-45% compared with the same period in 2008, and the revenue in January-February is still Is in a downward trend. At the same time, there is a high degree of uncertainty in the order, that is, the rush order may appear at any time, but the order may be temporarily cancelled.
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