Although LED was finally included in the “Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries†along with new energy vehicles, bio-pharmaceuticals, photovoltaics, and nuclear power, it is rapidly expanding to 25 new energy sources in pilot cities. In terms of automobiles, nuclear power generation, and high-profile biopharmaceuticals due to super bacteria and mites, market public opinion seems to be slightly inferior to Zeng Hongji’s LED attention.
Taking the release of the "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries" as an example, on September 8, China's LED leading stock Sanan Optoelectronics (600703, shares) fell slightly by 0.04%, due to new energy vehicles Baotou Steel Rare Earth (600,111, shares), which is known for its upstream resource concept, has been closed at the daily limit. Affected by the news of Dongguan's "LED chip price increase of nearly 30%", investors' enthusiasm for the LED concept has cooled significantly. At the same time, even people in the industry pointed out that China's LED has become an overcapacity industry.
LED investment increased
Big projects are endless
The conclusion of overcapacity is not empty talk. According to public information, under the premise that the cost of LED lighting products is difficult to reach universal standards, some organizations predict that the output value of China's LED industry will exceed 150 billion yuan in 2010, which is twice that of 2008. . More industry experts predict that the investment in the domestic LED industry will reach 60 billion yuan this year, an increase of 500% compared with last year's more than 10 billion yuan.
However, even if the industry has been alert to release overcapacity signals, such as "Xi'an High-tech Zone and Dongguan Qinshang Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., Xi'an Jiayu Energy Technology Co., Ltd. signed a high-power LED optoelectronic industrial base project with a total investment of 680 million yuan" Still in the ear, the LED investment boom that occurred in the “Wuhan-China Optics Valley†(Wuhan National High-tech Industrial Development Zone) was copied over and over again throughout the country.
LED has been upgraded to mature industry
Investigate, the highly sought after LED industry investment benefits: LED lighting products have outstanding advantages, complete industrial chain, China's silicon, sapphire and other LED upstream resources are rich, the industry entry threshold is low.
According to the reporter's understanding, first of all, taking a 40-watt LED tube as an example, it is 90% more energy-efficient than incandescent lamps, with a life expectancy of 20,000 hours, more than four times the life of incandescent lamps (3000-5000 hours); The industrial sectors of “raw material purification – slicing – packaging – synthesis†subdivided in the downstream are quite complete in China; in addition, as raw materials for LED chips, China's silicon reserves are quite abundant, and the supply of synthetic quartz materials – sapphire is not There are vacancies; the most important thing is that the initial investment of the LED industry is only 100 million yuan, and the low threshold of industry access has promoted the successive projects of various projects.
In this way, unlike photovoltaic, wind power and even new energy vehicles that are difficult to break through the constraints of energy storage technology, LED has developed nearly 40 years of electro-optical conversion technology is nearing maturity, in Wuhan Boneng Lide New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Chairman Wang Baocheng seems that the only problem that plagues the development of the LED industry is the price.
LED is subject to price
Bottleneck breakthrough is only a matter of time
"Three years ago, the 40-watt LED tube factory price was about 300 yuan, and today most products are priced between 140-160 yuan, the chip price has basically maintained a 20%-30% annual decline, and at the price On the basis of the downward adjustment, the products of the past 5-6 lumens have now been upgraded to 7 lumens (product quality improvement), it can be said that the price of LED lighting products has dropped greatly." Wang Baocheng told reporters.
Despite this, the biggest competitor of LED lights, the price of incandescent lamps is only 20 yuan, nearly 8 times the price gap, seriously plagued the popularity of LED lights. "It is unrealistic to reduce the cost of LED lights to the same as incandescent lamps, but according to industry practice, if the price of LED lights falls to 40-60 yuan (three times that of incandescent lamps), consumers can accept LED will also replace incandescent lamps. According to the current development speed, LEDs can achieve this goal soon," Wang Baocheng firmly believes.
Overcapacity
Policy support is not in place
During the interview, several industry insiders did not avoid the problem of LED overcapacity. Wang Bao’s achievements told reporters that “the current domestic LED production capacity is indeed excessive, but the main problem of the industry is: the primary market investment is relatively concentrated in the slice- In the last three stages of packaging-synthesis, the purification of the most upstream raw materials (silicon, sapphire) is relatively cold due to the large investment and difficulty in achieving scale."
The same is true. According to public information, in the industrial chain, LED epitaxial wafers and LED chips account for about 70% of the industry's profits, LED applications account for about 10%-20%, and LED packages are less than 10%. The layout of China's LED companies happens to be the opposite: in more than 3,000 LED-related enterprises, there are more than 1,000 LED packaging companies, nearly 2,000 LED application companies, and only more than 60 LED extension and chip companies.
What is more worthy of attention is that “the energy-saving and emission reduction targets for local governments are not linked to urban lighting. Therefore, the limited production of electricity is more concerned with industrial electricity, but if not, the policy restricts local governments through energy conservation and emission reduction. It will greatly increase the demand of the LED industry, effectively release LED production capacity, accelerate industrial development, and detonate a wave of LED market in the secondary market." Wang Baocheng believes.
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